On May 12 local time, China and the United States issued the *Joint Statement of the Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks* in Geneva, Switzerland, announcing a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels. The United States will cancel 91% of the additional tariffs, and China will correspondingly cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs, while also suspending 24% of the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. This is the first substantial breakthrough achieved through high - level dialogue since the United States unilaterally escalated tariffs in April 2025, marking a crucial turning point in Sino-US economic and trade relations from "hard confrontation" to "soft game".
I. Escalation of the Tariff War and Breakthrough in Dialogue
In April 2025, the U.S. government imposed "reciprocal tariffs" on China, successively raising the tariff rate from 34% to 125%. China immediately took countermeasures, plunging the global trade order into turmoil. During this round of talks, the two sides conducted candid consultations on core issues such as tariffs and supply chains, focusing on implementing the consensus reached in the phone call between the Chinese and U.S. heads of state on January 17. According to the joint statement, the United States will cancel 91% of the tariffs imposed under Executive Orders 14259 of April 8, 2025, and 14266 of April 9, 2025, and revise the 34% reciprocal tariffs stipulated in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. China will simultaneously cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs, suspend 24% of the counter - measures against reciprocal tariffs, and also suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures.
Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, pointed out that this agreement signals a shift from "short - term confrontation" to "long - term competition and cooperation" between the two sides. He believes that the United States previously misjudged China's determination and economic resilience in counter - measures. China successfully defused the pressure through diversified markets and technological breakthroughs, forcing the United States back to the negotiation table.
II. Specific Path and Impact of Tariff Adjustments
(A) Structural Characteristics of Tariff Adjustments
1.Tiered Implementation**: The 91% of tariffs cancelled by the United States mainly target the "reciprocal tariffs" newly added in April 2025. The remaining 10% of tariffs are concentrated in strategic fields such as semiconductors and new energy, reflecting a dual strategy of "decoupling in key technologies" and "easing in consumer goods".
2.Time Window**: The 90 - day suspension period for 24% of the tariffs leaves room for subsequent negotiations between the two sides. Analysts believe that this buffer period may serve as a test period for evaluating the implementation effect of the agreement and adjusting strategies.
3.Non - tariff Measures**: China's simultaneous suspension or cancellation of non - tariff measures, including restrictions on rare earth exports and the Unreliable Entities List, directly addresses the United States' concerns about supply chain security.
(B) Economic and Market Impacts
1.Reduction in Trade Costs**: According to data from Caixin Research, China's exports to the United States fell 21% year - on - year in April, but re - exports through third countries such as ASEAN increased by 20.8%, offsetting part of the impact of tariffs. After the agreement comes into effect, the costs of traditional export industries such as mechanical and electrical products and textiles are expected to decrease significantly, and U.S. exports of agricultural products and energy products to China are likely to recover.
2.Industry Differentiation**: Industries highly dependent on the U.S. market, such as consumer electronics, furniture, and batteries (for example, the toy industry accounts for 32.7% of exports to the United States), will directly benefit. However, strategic industries such as semiconductors and new energy still face a 10% tariff, forcing the domestic industrial chain to accelerate self - reliance.
3.Reconstruction of the Global Supply Chain**: Third - party economies such as the European Union and ASEAN have expressed cautious welcome to the agreement. European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis said that U.S. tariffs already cover 70% of EU exports to the United States and called for resolving disputes through the WTO framework. ASEAN emphasized that it will deepen regional economic integration to cope with the impact of U.S. unilateralism.
III. Establishment of the Consultation Mechanism and Future Challenges
The two sides have unanimously agreed to establish the "Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism", with Vice Premier He Lifeng of China and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Greer holding regular or irregular consultations in China, the United States, or a third country. The mechanism will focus on core issues such as tariffs, technology transfer, and market access, and will also set up working - level consultations to solve specific problems.
Analysts point out that the key to this mechanism lies in whether it can break the cycle of "talking while fighting". Jin Siyu, a researcher at the Qin'an Strategy Institute, emphasized that if the United States continues to use tariffs as a bargaining chip, it may undermine the effectiveness of the mechanism. China has laid the foundation for long - term competition through the "dual - circulation" development pattern and the Belt and Road Initiative.
IV. International Perspective and Strategic Significance
This agreement is regarded as an important step towards "de - fragmentation" of the global economy. WTO Director - General Ngozi Okonjo - Iweala said that the resolution of differences through dialogue between China and the United States has injected confidence into the multilateral trading system. However, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned that if subsequent negotiations reach an impasse, tariffs may once again become a "political tool", exacerbating the uncertainty of the global supply chain.
It is worth noting that after the signing of the agreement, countries such as India and the United Kingdom, which previously compromised with the United States, have fallen into a passive position. India unilaterally reduced tariffs on the United States in exchange for exemptions, and the United Kingdom relaxed access for U.S. agricultural products, but now they face the embarrassment of "falling before dawn". Experts believe that this highlights the effectiveness of the strategy of "seeking cooperation through struggle".
V. Conclusion: A Turning Point from Crisis to Opportunity
The Geneva talks mark the entry of the Sino - US tariff war into a "new stage of competition and cooperation". Although the two sides still have differences in key areas, the cancellation of 91% of tariffs and the establishment of the consultation mechanism have provided much - needed stability for the global economy. As the spokesperson of China's Ministry of Commerce said, it is hoped that the United States will take this meeting as a starting point, completely correct the mistakes of unilateralism, and jointly maintain the healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations. The upcoming 90 - day suspension period will be a touchstone for observing the sincerity of both sides. In the long run, how to find a balance between technological competition and economic interdependence remains the core challenge in Sino - US relations.
(This article is comprehensively compiled from official statements of China and the United States, reports from authoritative media, and expert analyses. Citations are indicated in the references.)
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